主 办:北 京 中 医 药 大 学
ISSN 1006-2157 CN 11-3574/R

JOURNAL OF BEIJIGN UNIVERSITY OF TRADITIONAL CHINE ›› 2018, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 418-422.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2157.2018.05.011

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Development of predictive scale of diabetic kidney disease bases on clinical research*

Liu Hongfang, Jiang Min

  1. Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing 100700, China;
  • Received:2017-12-10 Online:2018-05-30 Published:2018-05-30
  • Supported by:
    National Clinical Research Base Construction of Chinese Medicine of State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine (No.JDZX2015305)

Abstract: Objective To establish a scale integrated Chinese and Western medicine for predicting the progress of diabetic kidney disease (DKD), and provide a simple and reliable predictive method for DKD progress. Methods DKD patients were divided into group of microalbuminuria stage (MAU group, n=258) and group of clinical albuminuria stage (CAU group, n=234). The basic information, detected indexes, laboratory indexes and distribution of TCM pattern factors were compared between 2 groups. The risk factors were screened by using multi-factor Logistic regression analysis, and a regression equation was obtained with Western medical indexes and TCM pattern factors as variables. The continuous variables were converted to categorical variables by using decision tree method to establish a predictive scale of DKD progress. There were 76 DKD patients in MAU group were re-chosen, and the predictive scale was verified according to their actual progress of DKD. Results The results of Logistic regression analysis showed that systolic blood pressure (OR=1.021, P=0.022), albumin (OR=0.888, P=0.000), serum creatinine (OR=1.010, P=0.000), blood uric acid (OR=1.004, P=0.000) and yang deficiency pattern (OR=1.793, P=0.006) were independently correlated to DKD developing from MAU stage to CAU stage. The total score of the scale was 86, and diagnostic threshold value was 42. The area under the ROC curve was 0.852, and small sample validation showed that sensitivity was 60%, specificity was 78.8% and accuracy rate was 76.3%. Conclusion The scale can well predict the probability of DKD developing from MAU stage to CAU stage, which is meaningful to the early prediction of DKD.

Key words: diabetic kidney disease, progress, prediction, scale

CLC Number: 

  • R255.4